Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 10.015839 11.496889 13.090759 14.929855 16.989505 19.221112 21.817973
2025-11-16 7.797953 9.796093 12.113612 14.984912 18.430306 22.414308 27.351213
2025-11-23 6.542422 8.719505 11.370207 14.806694 19.112438 24.294925 30.966762
2025-11-30 5.701855 8.014579 10.955177 14.922982 20.085020 26.516093 35.068605
2025-12-07 5.180923 7.622530 10.843771 15.339103 21.373664 29.108650 39.672003
2025-12-14 4.540924 6.985402 10.327998 15.145950 21.809266 30.582207 42.864310
2025-12-21 3.866389 6.216482 9.545384 14.497330 21.546115 31.068066 44.717501
2025-12-28 3.600351 6.008509 9.521997 14.887265 22.707787 33.496501 49.261517
2026-01-04 3.334303 5.768736 9.423009 15.144562 23.674043 35.675746 53.531150
2026-01-11 3.009773 5.401978 9.097794 15.031676 24.078403 37.059933 56.718295
2026-01-18 2.717323 5.055468 8.770444 14.881641 24.401330 38.319151 59.752373
2026-01-25 2.489373 4.792129 8.549053 14.871563 24.919830 39.866865 63.244179
2026-02-01 2.302771 4.586014 8.410030 14.991084 25.657036 41.791826 67.407345
2026-02-08 2.102552 4.335670 8.177100 14.939718 26.118089 43.315015 71.027094
2026-02-15 1.909762 4.077403 7.906495 14.799728 26.416092 44.582218 74.282687
2026-02-22 1.775662 3.914935 7.787325 14.902326 27.104517 46.471612 78.550526
2026-03-01 1.701195 3.859831 7.852878 15.322956 28.332764 49.250693 84.293170
2026-03-08 1.546686 3.629297 7.580416 15.128203 28.508872 50.345371 87.404150
2026-03-15 1.349640 3.289641 7.076357 14.480859 27.868680 50.078344 88.311490
2026-03-22 1.297489 3.249899 7.138895 14.870185 29.044298 52.830654 94.187971
2026-03-29 1.233537 3.177830 7.132166 15.127308 29.993629 55.234359 99.564257
2026-04-05 1.134718 3.017566 6.937615 15.014504 30.270540 56.509768 103.108086
2026-04-12 1.040914 2.858229 6.731775 14.864628 30.467721 57.648771 106.450794